South Florida at Charlotte by the numbers

by Mar 1, 2024Basketball

Nik Graves scores for Charlotte Basketball against Wichita State.

Photo Credit: Charlotte Athletics

Bulls on Parade

Saturday at 4pm ET, Charlotte (17-10, 11-4) will host the University of South Florida Bulls (21-5, 14-1), who are on an incredible tear and currently leading the AAC. USF is riding a 13th game winning streak, with a 3-game lead over Charlotte and FAU. The Bulls’ surge has vaulted them into the Top 25 for the first time in the program’s history.

Charlotte and USF have a long history, with Charlotte trailing the series 25-30. Home court has been great for Aaron Fearne and his team this year, 12-1 so far, but all-time the Niners are just 13-11 at home in this matchup. Overall USF has won the last 3 games.


What’s at stake?

Charlotte’s odds of winning a share of the AAC regular season title are all but gone, currently BartTorvik.com gives the Niners just a 2.2% chance at an earning a share of the conference title. USF has a 100% chance of at least a share, and 97.2% chance at sole possession. What’s the significance of this game, and Charlotte’s other two to end the season then, you might ask? The top four seeds in the AAC conference tourney will receive double byes (view the bracket), which means a top four seed would only need to win 3 games in 3 days for an auto bid to the NCAA’s. Charlotte is well-positioned for one of four. As a reminder, Charlotte holds the tiebreaker over FAU, and looming a game behind CLT & FAU is SMU (Mustangs holds tiebreaker vs CLT) and UAB (CLT holds tiebreaker over UAB). Just 1.5 games back from Charlotte lurks a surging Memphis squad.

If Charlotte wins out or win 2 out of 3, they are a lock for double bye.

If Charlotte wins just 1 out of the last 3, they could lose out on double bye if UAB wins out (@Memphis, @Temple, SMU) as UAB would have 13 wins. If Memphis wins their final 2, that gives Memphis and CLT 12 wins, and Memphis would have the tiebreaker.

Remaining schedules for teams vying for top four seed, not including USF since they are a lock:

CLT: USF, Rice, @ECU
FAU: Tulane, @UNT, Memphis
SMU: UTSA, ECU, @UAB
UAB: @Memphis, @Temple, SMU
Memphis: UAB, @FAU

Charlotte and SMU likely have the easiest remaining schedules remaining, with UAB and Memphis having the toughest. The odds are certainly on Charlotte’s side to get a double bye, and the ball is in their court. Win out, or 2 of the final three, and the patch to an AAC Championship is easier shorter.


So Much Data™

That’s an inside joke only a few are going to get, alas, on to the data. If you want places for this kind of stuff, I recommend: BartTorvik.com, EvanMiya.com, and kenpom.com. CBBAnalytics.com is nice as well, but it has a more limited scope without a subscription. Torvik and Miya also give individual player metrics, so I highly recommend checking those out for additional information.

BartTorvik Ratings
Charlotte is 94th overall, 95th Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 103rd Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
USF is 98th overall, 111th Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 90th Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
CLT is favored by 3.8 points over USF in tomorrow’s contest.

Evan Miya Ratings
Charlotte is 117th overall.
USF is 89th overall.

Kenpm Ratings
Charlotte is 105th overall, 108th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 124th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
USF is 94th overall, 114th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 78th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Transparency, I’m not pushing more Torvik info since Charlotte is ranked higher there. The site has free data that is easier to share with you all, so that’s why you see it more often from me than other sites.

Halton should be rocking tomorrow, come out and let’s rally behind the guys as they look to finish strong. On a side note, it’s Senior Day and Charlotte will be honoring Jackson Threadgill and Robert Braswell. While Braswell exhausts his eligibility, Threadgill does has his COVID year of eligibility, if he’d want to use it here or elsewhere.


In Case You Missed It

Niners Basketball Collective has launched this week, spearheading Name, Imagine, and Likeness (NIL) efforts for both Men’s and Women’s basketball here at Charlotte. More on that here.

<< More basketball content >>

Niners Basketball Collective has launched

Niners Basketball Collective has launched

Photo Credit: Niners Basketball Collective Aaron Fearne was cemented as the Charlotte's 14th head coach back on February 12th, and several alumni and supporters immediately jumped into action to kickstart the Niners Basketball Collective, that has now officially...

Charlotte looks to regain its footing

Charlotte looks to regain its footing

Photo Credit: Charlotte Athletics After a disappointing loss at USF back on February 6th, in which Charlotte lead by as many as 17 in the second half and held the lead the entirety of the game, until the final 29 seconds, the Niners rebounded and reeled off three...